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ISPRA analyses the three events of 2025 that led to the death of three Marsican brown bears and the captivity of a cub for reintroduction

ISPRA analyses the three events of 2025 that led to the death of three Marsican brown bears and the captivity of a cub for reintroduction

The central Italian brown bear population is one of the most threatened worldwide, classified as Critically Endangered in the most recent IUCN Red Lists (European assessment: Huber 2025; National assessment: Rondinini et al. 2022), and is considered in poor conservation status in the 4th Habitat Directive Report (2013–2017). It is therefore a population of national and European priority conservation concern.

Distribuzione dell’orso bruno (Ursus arctos) in Europa nel periodo 2017-2023 (fonte: Large carnivore distribution maps and population updates 2017 – 2022/23)

Distribuzione dell’orso bruno (Ursus arctos) in Europa nel periodo 2017-2023 (fonte: Large carnivore distribution maps and population updates 2017 – 2022/23)

In 2025, three notable events occurred in the buffer zone of the Abruzzo, Lazio and Molise National Park (PNALM) involving Marsican bears, raising concern among conservationists and the Italian public:

  • On 13 April 2025, the body of an adult male bear was found in the municipality of Ortona dei Marsi. According to information collected by ISPRA, investigations into the cause of death are ongoing. Illegal shooting and roadkill have been ruled out. The presence of injuries on the carcass suggests a possible intraspecific attack. Therefore, pending laboratory results and the final report, no conclusive evaluation can be made regarding the mortality risk implications.
  • On 7 May 2025, two young bears (around one year old) were found drowned in an artificial reservoir in Colle Rotondo, after having breached the perimeter fence. This is a serious and avoidable human-related incident, especially considering a similar fatal accident in 2018, in which an adult female and two cubs died in a tank. Reducing human-related mortality is a key goal in the Action Plan for the Protection of the Marsican Brown Bear (PATOM), and greater efforts are needed to secure artificial structures across the species' range, both inside and outside protected areas.
  • On 9 May 2025, a very young female bear was seen wandering alone near the town of Pizzone, unaccompanied, during a period when maternal presence is vital. After being observed alone for several hours, the cub was taken into care and is now at a park facility, with the aim of its eventual release in nature. As ISPRA has previously highlighted, rewilding orphaned bear cubs is complex and exhibits low success rates. Nevertheless, rescuing the animal is important, due to the future reproductive potential a female represents for the population. ISPRA is in communication with the National Park to provide technical and scientific support.

The rapid succession of these events has raised concern over their demographic and conservation impact. ISPRA has thus provided this technical note to clarify a few aspects, in light of the Marsican bear's fragile conservation status.

Population trends in the Marsican brown bear, as in any species, depend on the annual balance between births and deaths. To reliably assess population dynamics and conservation prospects, it is necessary to monitor: (1) the number of individuals in the population, (2) mortality rates, and (3) reproductive success, through appropriate sampling schemes. Current values are mostly based on opportunistic data from the Marsican bear monitoring network, providing minimum estimates that offer only a partial demographic picture. However, summarizing these figures can help contextualize the recent events.

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Population size data: The last formal estimate was in 2014, conducted by Sapienza University of Rome, in collaboration with PNALM and the former State Forestry Corps (now CC.FF.), under the LIFE Arctos project. It reported 45–69 individuals within the PNALM and buffer area. In recent years, coordinated monitoring networks (involving national parks, regional reserves, CC.FF., and the Lazio, Abruzzo and Molise regions) have expanded genetic sampling to peripheral areas and continued to report minimum annual numbers, mostly from opportunistic sources. These efforts have also confirmed increasing signs of bear presence in marginal zones, suggesting a possible range expansion over the last decade. This is supported by confirmed individuals outside PNALM, particularly in the Monte Genzana Regional Reserve and the Maiella National Park.

In summer 2025, the first simultaneous, range-wide genetic sampling campaign across the entire distribution area of the species in the central Apennines will take place, aiming to update the 2014 population estimate and produce a formal estimate for peripheral areas. The project, funded by MASE under the DIGITAP project (PNRR funding), will be coordinated by ISPRA.

Minimum mortality data: Between 2003 and 2024, a total of 52 bear deaths were recorded, averaging 2.4 bears per year (ranging from 0 to 6 annually). Of those with known causes of death, 50% were illegally killed (firearms, poisoning), and 30% died from other human-related causes (road/rail collisions, drowning). Mortality data are reported annually, corresponding to birth seasons. These are minimum known values; actual mortality may be higher.

Minimum reproduction data: From 2014 to 2024, annual counts of females with cubs recorded 119 births, averaging 10.8 cubs per year (range: 3 to 16). A progressive increase in reproductive females has been observed, and signs suggest a potential expansion in the breeding area.

In the context of the data summarized above, the mortality events that emerged in the biennium 2023-2024 (4 dead bears, including one by firearm, 2 by road accident and one by intraspecific aggression) and in the first part of 2025 (2 drowned and one by causes yet to be clarified), confirm the high incidence of anthropogenic mortality on the species, especially in the form of direct persecution and due to road hazards. We therefore reiterate the absolute priority of making every effort to prevent new anthropogenic mortality events from occurring, given the importance of this core and its precarious conservation status (assessments Habitats Directive/IUCN assessments). 

From a demographic perspective, the Marsican brown bear remains extremely vulnerable due to its small population, low genetic variability, habitat fragmentation, and continued human-caused mortality. The extinction risk has been estimated at 17% within the next 100 years (Gervasi & Ciucci 2018). However, the relatively high number of annual births and increasing peripheral observations may indicate a stable or even improving trend, pending robust data and statistical analyses.

The 2025 range-wide genetic sampling campaign will be crucial to inform adaptive conservation strategies. Continuous, systematic monitoring is needed, moving from minimum observed values toward formal demographic estimates. This will help guide future policy decisions and conservation actions.

Immediate efforts must focus on reducing human-related mortality risks to secure the future of this iconic and critically endangered population.

References:

  • Rapporto Orso Marsicano National Park of Abruzzo Lazio and Molise
  • Gervasi, V., Ciucci, P. (2018). Demographic projections of the Apennine brown bear population Ursus arctos marsicanus under alternative management scenarios. The European Zoological Journal, 85: 243–253.
  • Huber, D. (2025). Ursus arctos (Europe assessment). The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2025: e.T41688A216873475.
  • Rondinini, C., Battistoni, A., Teofili, C. (2022). Lista Rossa IUCN dei vertebrati italiani 2022. Comitato Italiano IUCN e Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica, Roma.